The USGS also notes that, if you simply took the past three eruptions, the odds of Yellowstone erupting in any given year are 0. But even that's not a good estimate, since it's not at all certain that Yellowstone erupts on a regular cycle or that it's "overdue" for another eruption. In fact, there might never be a big eruption in Yellowstone again. That's not a sure thing," says Lowenstern.
It may not even see a fourth eruption. Volcanoes, after all, do die out. The magma chamber below Yellowstone is being affected by two opposing forces — the heat welling up from below and the relative cold from the surface.
If less heat comes in from below, then the chamber could conceivably freeze, eventually turning into a solid granite body. It's also worth noting that the volcanic hotspot underneath Yellowstone is slowly migrating to the northeast or, more accurately, the North American tectonic plate above the hotspot is migrating southwest.
You can see the migration below:. On a long enough time scale, the hotspot will move out from under Yellowstone — and the Yellowstone supervolcano would, presumably, die out.
Of course, it's possible that another supervolcano could emerge further in the northeast, but the hotspot would first have to heat up and melt the cold crust first. And that process could take a million years or longer. But Earth's been around a very long time, and these systems take a long time to do what they do.
They also have a great rundown of the most recent paper modeling a super-eruption. A key line: "One obstacle to accurate forecasting of large volcanic events is humanity's lack of familiarity with the singals leading up to the largest class of volcanic eruptions. Our mission has never been more vital than it is in this moment: to empower through understanding.
Financial contributions from our readers are a critical part of supporting our resource-intensive work and help us keep our journalism free for all. Please consider making a contribution to Vox today to help us keep our work free for all.
Cookie banner We use cookies and other tracking technologies to improve your browsing experience on our site, show personalized content and targeted ads, analyze site traffic, and understand where our audiences come from. By choosing I Accept , you consent to our use of cookies and other tracking technologies. What would happen if the Yellowstone supervolcano actually erupted?
Share this story Share this on Facebook Share this on Twitter Share All sharing options Share All sharing options for: What would happen if the Yellowstone supervolcano actually erupted? Reddit Pocket Flipboard Email.
US Geological Survey If the supervolcano underneath Yellowstone National Park ever had another massive eruption, it could spew ash for thousands of miles across the United States, damaging buildings, smothering crops, and shutting down power plants.
A super-eruption would be horrific — though also pretty unlikely But that doesn't mean we should all start freaking out. That much ash could kill plants and animals, crush roofs, and short all sorts of electrical equipment: Ash, ash, everywhere An example of the possible distribution of ash from a month-long Yellowstone supereruption.
What is the Yellowstone supervolcano? National Park Service Lurking beneath Yellowstone National Park is a reservoir of hot magma five miles deep, fed by a gigantic plume of molten rock welling up from hundreds of miles below.
The vast, vast majority of Yellowstone eruptions are small On rare occasions throughout history, that magma chamber has erupted. The difference is staggering: Super-eruptions vs ordinary eruptions US Geological Survey Yellowstone has had three of these really massive eruptions in its history — 2.
The last of those , at Yellowstone Lava Creek, ejected so much material from below that it left a mile-bymile depression in the ground — what we see today as the Yellowstone Caldera: Location of past Yellowstone super-eruptions National Park Service It's worth noting that Yellowstone is hardly the only supervolcano out there — geologists have found evidence of at least 47 super-eruptions in Earth's history.
So what would a Yellowstone eruption look like? A super-eruption is capable of sending ash many thousands of miles Now, in the unlikely event of a much bigger super-eruption, the warning signs would be much bigger. The exact distribution would depend on the time of year and weather patterns: Modeling the spread of ash from a Yellowstone super-eruption Mastin et al Any of those scenarios would be terrible news.
An eruption that big would also cool the planet temporarily A volcanic eruption that big would also have major effects on the global climate. So what are the odds of a Yellowstone super-eruption? Very, very low. In fact, it's even possible Yellowstone might never erupt again.
So much ash and rock could fill nearly three quarters of the Grand Canyon. And it puts the event on par with the infamous Toba superuption in Indonesia about 74, years ago, which some scientists have theorized may have brought humans to the brink of extinction.
The investigators also uncovered a second supereruption, which occurred nine million years ago and likely blew out 1, cubic kilometers of material.
Not only were they larger, but they were also hotter and occurred in rapid succession. At that time, supereruptions ravaged the Yellowstone hotspot track once every , years. Today that rate has dropped to 1. Is the hotspot itself is dying out? Or is the continental crust above that plume thicker than it once was, providing a lid that dampened the most recent events?
Although the current rate of eruptions suggests that another explosion will not occur for roughly , years, Knott points out this estimate is simply a historical average, and it does not forecast how and when nature will act.
Shannon Hall is an award-winning freelance science journalist based in the Rocky Mountains. She specializes in writing about astronomy, geology and the environment.
Credit: Nick Higgins. Already a subscriber? What type of eruption will Yellowstone have if it erupts again? The most likely explosive event to occur at Yellowstone is actually a hydrothermal explosion —a rock-hurling geyser eruption—or a lava flow. Hydrothermal explosions are very small; they occur in Yellowstone National Park every few years and form a crater a few meters across.
Every few thousand years, a hydrothermal explosion will form a crater as How do the giant eruptions in the Yellowstone National Park region compare to other large historic eruptions? The diagram below shows that the three largest Yellowstone eruptions emitted much more material than the eruptions of Mount St. The largest eruption in the last two million years was about 74, What was the largest volcanic eruption in the 20th century?
The world's largest eruption of the 20th century occurred in at Novarupta on the Alaska Peninsula. An estimated 15 cubic kilometers of magma was explosively erupted during 60 hours beginning on June 6th.
This volume is equivalent to years of eruption at Kilauea Hawaii or about 30 times the volume erupted by Mount St. Helens Washington Where is the largest active volcano in the world? Rising gradually to more than 4 km 2. Its submarine flanks descend to the sea floor an additional 5 km 3 mi , and the sea floor in turn is depressed by Mauna Loa's great mass another 8 km 5 mi. This makes the volcano's summit about 17 km What was the most destructive volcanic eruption in the history of the United States?
The May 18, eruption of Mount St. Helens Washington was the most destructive in the history of the United States. Novarupta Katmai Volcano in Alaska erupted considerably more material in , but owing to the isolation and sparse population of the region, there were no human deaths and little property damage.
In contrast, the eruption of What are some examples of supervolcanoes? Volcanoes that have produced exceedingly voluminous pyroclastic eruptions and formed large calderas in the past 2 million years include Yellowstone, Long Valley in eastern California, Toba in Indonesia, and Taupo in New Zealand.
Other 'supervolcanoes' would likely include the large caldera volcanoes of Japan, Indonesia, Alaska e. How many active volcanoes are there on Earth? There are about 1, potentially active volcanoes worldwide, aside from the continuous belts of volcanoes on the ocean floor at spreading centers like the Mid-Atlantic Ridge. About of those 1, volcanoes have erupted in historical time. Many of those are located along the Pacific Rim in what is known as the " Ring of Fire.
Filter Total Items: Year Published: Yellowstone Volcano Observatory annual report The Yellowstone Volcano Observatory YVO monitors volcanic and hydrothermal activity associated with the Yellowstone magmatic system, conducts research into magmatic processes occurring beneath Yellowstone Caldera, and issues timely warnings and guidance related to potential future geologic hazards. View Citation.
Geological Survey Circular , 44 p. Year Published: update to the U. Geological Survey national volcanic threat assessment When erupting, all volcanoes pose a degree of risk to people and infrastructure, however, the risks are not equivalent from one volcano to another because of differences in eruptive style and geographic location.
0コメント